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Showing posts with label russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label russia. Show all posts
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Possible Reasons Why Russia Invaded Ukraine
Disclaimer: This article is my personal opinion and gathered from long time reading of news articles. I am not a professional writer nor a political science master but an avid reader of politics, history, sports, business, and news.
1. Geography/Geopolitics
For the longest time, since the fall of the USSR, NATO has been expanding eastwards - into areas where Russia considers as its natural spheres of influence. With three Baltic states joining the organization, the entry of Ukraine would signal a choke point for Russia. With the other two Scandinavian countries thinking of joining the alliance, almost all of Moscow's eastern neighbors will pose a significant threat, especially if military installation and equipment were placed on their lands. On its eastern flank, it only has Belarus.
Russia has a reason to worry.
2. Economy and Two US Presidents
The USSR collapsed because it couldn't compete with the West. There were a lot of factors involved and one of the reason is the economy. The West was modern, ever changing, a pioneer in innovation and business while the Soviet Union remained stagnant. Although it was able to go toe-to-toe in terms of military strength, almost all other aspects remain underdeveloped.
Russia is an oil economy. It supplies oil to Europe and other markets through pipelines and shipping.
During Trump's time, the former US president produced oil at a record pace and used the resource as a bargaining chip both for the US and world oil markets. It partially severed American dependence on foreign oil. It also limited revenues for foreign countries because of over supply.
When Biden came into office, he cancelled the Keystone project and introduced so called "green" policies. This in a way placed the US back into foreign oil dependence again. These new green technologies take time and it would have been better to let it grow naturally.
Judging by the two US presidencies, Trump held an ace while Biden held a joker. This kept Putin in check. In fact, Trump was able to do something which no other US president had done in recent memory - challenge China, pacify North Korea, and calm Iran. The Abraham Accords were signed with Israel and a few Middle Eastern countries. America did not launch new wars. Trump advocated for a stable Russia. Russia is a global partner in the current world system.
Most of the pipelines run through Ukraine and although Russia pays for it, the thought of having this source of income cut is a possibility. The NORD line is also susceptible because it passes through Scandinavian waters.
New oil reserves have also been found near the Crimean peninsula.
With the Russian economy floating because of oil, it is imperative that they secure these pipes to keep the money floating.
3. Withdrawal of Treaties
On this topic, I am not quite familiar but read that the Open Skies and the INF treaties are no longer in effect (I could be wrong). With this backdrop, we can imagine the possibility of Ukraine being used as a basing point for more advanced weaponry right in front of Russia's doorsteps.
4. History
Throughout its long history, the forefathers of the Rus have been invaded by the Vikings and
Mongols, and in recent memory, by Napoleon's France and Hitler's Nazi
Germany. Today's situation is no different. Putin feels the Russian
state is in danger with NATO at its doorstep.
If we are to look back in history, Ukraine and Russia are intertwined since the ancient times. Theirs is a complex but shared history.
In conclusion, there are a lot of other factors (demographics, etc) but it appears Putin's hand was forced. There was no other option. NATO can survive without Ukraine but Russia's survival is partially dependent on Ukraine. A nation's security cannot be built at the expense of another.
Please feel free to fact-check me. Productive comments are highly welcomed.
Yes to peace. No to war.
PHOTO SOURCE:
https://www.rt.com/business/469674-russia-gas-pipelines-europe/
https://i1.wp.com/geoawesomeness.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Promised-invitation-to-NATO.jpg
https://i1.wp.com/geoawesomeness.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Promised-invitation-to-NATO.jpg
